Can Bitcoin Really Reach $400,000 by 2030?

For Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, a Bitcoin price of $400,000 by 2030 remains a reasonable goal. However, to achieve this from its current price, BTC would need to multiply by more than five.

In Brief

• Brian Armstrong believes that Bitcoin at $400,000 by 2030 remains a realistic target.
• BTC would need to increase by over 400% from its current level to reach this target.
• The Coinbase CEO thinks that Bitcoin has already hit the bottom of its current cycle.
• The 2028 halving and U.S. regulations could support his scenario.
• Bitcoin must also sustainably surpass $81,500 before aiming for its previous record.

Bitcoin Should Gain Over 400% by 2030

During an interview with CNBC on September 10, Brian Armstrong reaffirmed his projection. When asked about the possibility of Bitcoin nearing $400,000 before 2030, he responded that he still considers this target realistic.

Currently, BTC is trading around $77,000. It remains nearly 39% below its record of $126,198 reached in October 2025.

Many data points allow for measuring the magnitude of the forecast:

• Bitcoin should increase by about 420% from $77,000;
• Its price should multiply by nearly 5.2;
• The target would exceed the October 2025 record by 217%;
• Its market capitalization would approach $8 trillion with 20 million BTC in circulation.

Brian Armstrong noted in the interview broadcast by CNBC: "I think it's a reasonable target by 2030." Such a statement constitutes a personal opinion and not an official projection from Coinbase.

The CEO did not detail a capitalization model that could precisely justify the $400,000 figure. This calculation mainly assumes that institutional and retail demand will continue to grow faster than the available supply.

Brian Armstrong Believes the Bottom Has Already Passed

First, the optimism of the Coinbase CEO is based on Bitcoin's historical cycles. These typically last about four years and alternate between a phase of euphoria, a correction, and then a recovery before the next reduction in mining rewards.

He states: "I personally think we have already seen the bottom of Bitcoin during this cycle." BTC had dropped to $57,717 on July 1 before bouncing back to around $79,000 in September, according to gathered information.

Additionally, Armstrong specifies that bearish periods generally last about a year. The market has just crossed this phase since its peak in October 2025. However, the small number of completed cycles prevents this from being a reliable statistical rule.

The next halving, expected around April 2028, also supports his forecast. This event will halve the amount of new Bitcoins allocated to mining companies. Armstrong therefore expects investors to anticipate this reduction in supply over the next two years.

U.S. regulation would also play a role. Thus, the CEO is primarily monitoring the CLARITY Act and future rules applicable to this sector. A legal clarification would facilitate the arrival of new capital, while a political failure could delay this scenario.

BTC Must First Reclaim $81,500

Before considering $400,000, Bitcoin must confirm its exit from the bear market. Its 50-week moving average was around $81,473 at the beginning of this month. The price has not yet managed to close sustainably above this level.

In four of the five previous bear markets, surpassing this average confirmed that the bottom had already been reached. A weekly close above this threshold would therefore consolidate Brian Armstrong's analysis, according to a study by Galaxy Research.

A positive signal is provided by the rebound in August. During this month, Bitcoin gained 25.4%, while U.S. ETFs collected $3.4 billion. However, part of this evolution stemmed from the buyback of short positions and momentum-related acquisitions. Such flows can disappear quickly.

The halving effect could also diminish as ETFs and corporate treasuries gain importance. Thus, interest rates, global liquidity, and regulatory decisions could weigh more heavily on the market.

The levels of $81,500 and then $126,198 therefore represent the first verifiable steps. Without their sustainable crossing, Bitcoin at $400,000 will remain a long-term scenario rather than a confirmed trajectory.