Retail Sells More Bitcoin, Dormant Coins of OG Bitcoiners Start to Move

He who laughs last laughs best. Two on-chain signals tell the same story this week, each in its own way. On one side, small wallets continue to sell their Bitcoin despite a price that remains under pressure, far from the floor of spot demand already observed earlier this year. On the other side, coins that have been dormant for years are starting to circulate again. Two movements that seem contradictory, but may be read as two sides of the same coin. Decoding. Key points of this article: * Small holders continued to sell their Bitcoin, with an accumulation score nearing the theoretical floor. * Long-term holders have started to move their coins again, raising questions about a possible regime change. The figures, reported on September 7 by Crypto Briefing based on CryptoQuant data, are unambiguous. Wallets holding less than 10 BTC show an accumulation trend score of -0.98 since early August, close to the theoretical floor of -1, the maximum distribution level. The apparent demand for Bitcoin, an indicator that measures the imbalance between the supply coming from old wallets and new purchases, returned to negative territory in early September after a brief improvement in August. This is not exactly news. This same indicator remained negative for 208 consecutive days until June 26, with lows around -273,000 BTC. Small holders take their profits at every price rebound, rather than accumulating them. Whales, on the other hand, buy intermittently, without enough consistency to absorb both this selling pressure and the outflows from ETFs. While retail liquidates its positions, a completely different cohort is stirring, that of long-term holders. According to Darkfost, an analyst for CryptoQuant, on September 5, the 90-day moving average of UTXO (spent coins) outflows among holders of more than five years rose to 1,500 BTC. This is a doubling since May, when this average was half as high. However, caution is advised not to cry panic selling too quickly. Moving a coin out of a wallet does not necessarily mean selling it. Darkfost himself clarifies: part of these movements could simply correspond to holders securing their funds, a logical reflex after the Coldcard vulnerability that has shaken the community in recent months. Here lies the crux of the problem. Retail sells in pain while the oldest hands in the market, those who have gone through several cycles without moving, are starting to move again. Coincidence of timing or true regime change? Hard to decide with just one month of data. One thing is certain. Historically, it is rarely long-term holders who capitulate first. If they are moving today, it may be less out of worry than opportunism, repositioning coins bought at dizzying prices. Retail, on the other hand, looks at its much more recent purchase price, which is much closer to zero. Still, the history of the market is full of episodes where the panic of small holders ultimately fed the positions of the more patient. The Coldcard vulnerability has shown that a movement of old coins does not always mean what we think. The retail accumulation score, however, leaves little room for interpretation.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.