Experts Predict Bitcoin Will Surge to $500,000 by 2029! Historical Data Casts Doubt: The 'Myth of Explosive Growth' May Fade Away

As the market begins to bet on the next bull run for Bitcoin, many analysts have set astonishing target prices of $300,000 and $500,000. However, amidst this optimism, historical data has poured cold water on these predictions: the previous "myth of explosive growth" where Bitcoin skyrocketed by hundreds of times may become a thing of the past, with future bull markets expected to be more stable.

Unlike gold and traditional stock markets, Bitcoin's price movements are heavily influenced by a "four-year cycle," primarily driven by "halving," which cuts the Bitcoin reward for mining blocks in half every four years, thereby reducing the issuance rate by 50% and gradually lowering the new supply in the market.

Is a Bitcoin Target Price of $500,000 Realistic?

The first halving of Bitcoin occurred in 2012, and the fifth halving is scheduled for April 2028. Looking back at past market trends, Bitcoin typically bottoms out about 18 months before a halving and then enters a new bull market; it usually peaks 16 to 18 months after the halving, followed by a year-long bear market. This is known as the "four-year cycle," and the next cycle's peak is generally expected to occur in 2029.

Based on this cyclical theory, analysts have high hopes for the market in the coming years. Veteran trader Peter Brandt boldly predicts that the next bull market peak for Bitcoin will be between $300,000 and $500,000. Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra from Wall Street investment bank Bernstein are also optimistic about Bitcoin reaching $500,000 in 2029, citing a massive surge in demand for spot ETFs.

However, what is truly noteworthy is not whether Bitcoin will reach new highs, but that the magnitude of each new high is clearly converging.

Bitcoin's Growth Shows 'Stepwise Decrease'

As Bitcoin's market capitalization continues to expand and the market matures, the amount of capital needed to drive prices higher is becoming increasingly substantial. The peaks of past bull markets clearly reflect this trend:

• 2013: $266
• 2017: Nearly $20,000 (a staggering 75 times higher than the previous peak)
• 2021: Approximately $69,000 (an increase of only 3.5 times the previous peak)
• 2025: $126,000 (an even further compressed increase of just 1.8 times the previous peak)

In other words, while Bitcoin continues to set historical highs, the explosive power of bull markets is gradually declining, shifting from the previous "multiplicative surges" to a more stable, incremental rise.

If this trend continues, the next bull market peak may struggle to reach the market's expected range of $300,000 to $500,000.

The reason is simple: if Bitcoin is to break through $300,000, it would need to rise more than twice the approximately $126,000 peak of 2025, which not only exceeds the growth of the previous bull market but also contradicts the historical trend of slowing growth in recent years.

Converging Volatility Is Not Necessarily a 'Bad Thing'

However, this may not be bad news for investors, nor does it indicate a weakening outlook for Bitcoin. The convergence of price volatility is, in fact, a symbol of the market's gradual maturation.

As mentioned earlier, the larger the asset scale, the more astonishing the amount of capital required to drive prices up; at the same time, the market is welcoming more institutional investors and mature financial instruments, making the Bitcoin trading environment increasingly resemble traditional financial markets.

Today, in addition to ETFs, the market also has futures, options, volatility products, arbitrage funds, and structured products among its diverse investment tools. These products enhance market liquidity, mature the price discovery mechanism, and gradually reduce Bitcoin's volatility, making its trading characteristics increasingly similar to mature assets on Wall Street, rather than the early high-risk assets characterized by severe fluctuations.

Bullish investors may believe that if the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) were to implement large-scale monetary stimulus policies again, or if the U.S. Treasury began to include Bitcoin in national reserves, it could once again drive prices significantly higher.

However, historical experience does not fully support this inference.

The Early 'Explosive Growth' Market Is No More

After the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, the U.S. and major global economies simultaneously implemented unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus policies, leading to a rapid increase in market liquidity. Bitcoin soared to about $69,000 at that time, setting a new high, but compared to the 2017 peak, it only increased by about 3.5 times, a growth rate significantly lower than that of the previous bull market.

Looking at the new high of $126,000 set in 2025, even with the arrival of Bitcoin spot ETFs and a massive influx of institutional funds, the overall institutionalization of the market reached an all-time high, yet Bitcoin's growth barely reached 1.8 times that of the previous bull market.

All signs indicate that Bitcoin has not lost its growth momentum but is gradually maturing.

As an asset that is becoming larger, more liquid, and increasingly involving institutional participation, Bitcoin still has the opportunity to rewrite historical highs in the next cycle. However, the kind of explosive growth seen in previous bull markets, where prices surged by dozens or even hundreds of times, may gradually become a thing of the past.

For investors looking forward to the next "super bull market," it is more worthwhile to focus on the fact that Bitcoin is transitioning from a high-volatility speculative asset to an important asset in the global mainstream financial market.

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