Between the Fed and inflation, Bitcoin enters a turbulent week

End of the radio silence. After ten days of blackout before each meeting, the Federal Reserve will speak again on Wednesday evening, while Bitcoin hovers around $65,000. The drop in oil prices, aided by the truce between Washington and Tehran, temporarily eases concerns about energy inflation. However, the week remains busy: decisions from three central banks, U.S. statistics, results from Coinbase and Strategy, a massive unlocking of HYPE tokens, and a new distribution to FTX creditors.

Key Points {#h-key-points}

• The Fed is expected to keep its rates between 3.50% and 3.75% on Wednesday
• Coinbase and Strategy will release their results on Thursday after Wall Street
• Hyperliquid will unlock approximately $817 million of HYPE on Wednesday
• Nearly $900 million will be distributed to FTX creditors on Friday

Fed, inflation, and growth: Three decisive days for Bitcoin {#h-fed-inflation-and-growth-three-decisive-days-for-bitcoin}

The Fed's monetary policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. Its statement will be released on Wednesday at 8 PM Paris time, before Kevin Warsh's press conference at 8:30 PM. The favored scenario remains a maintenance of the key rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. However, the markets do not completely rule out a 25 basis point increase, now assessed at around 30%.

The real issue will therefore lie in the speech of the Fed chairman. An accommodating tone could weaken the dollar and support risky assets. Conversely, new concerns about inflation could weigh on Bitcoin, especially since the yield on ten-year U.S. bonds remains close to 4.7%.

The sequence will continue on Thursday with the U.S. GDP for the second quarter, weekly jobless claims, and the June PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Moderate growth and declining inflation would strengthen hopes for monetary easing in September. Stronger figures could, on the contrary, prolong the pressure on the crypto market.

The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their decisions on Thursday. A status quo is expected in both cases, respectively at 3.75% and 1%. Investors will nevertheless monitor indications regarding future rate hikes.

Coinbase, Strategy, HYPE, and FTX complete the agenda {#h-coinbase-strategy-hype-and-ftx-complete-the-agenda}

The crypto calendar will begin on Tuesday with the Ithaca hard fork of Polygon. On Wednesday, Hyperliquid will unlock 2.8% of its HYPE supply, amounting to approximately $817 million. Due to its scale, this operation could increase the token's volatility. Grass will also release 5.7% of its supply on Tuesday, while Bitget will unlock 0.7% of BGB on Wednesday.

On Thursday, Coinbase and Strategy will publish their results after Wall Street closes. For Coinbase, investors will examine trading volumes, subscription revenues, and the contribution of USDC. At Strategy, attention will once again focus on Bitcoin purchases, capital raises, and the value of its massive BTC treasury. Robinhood, Riot Platforms, and SoFi will have revealed their accounts the day before.

BitMEX will also settle and withdraw 35 derivative contracts on Thursday, as part of the gradual winding down of its activities. On Friday, FTX will finally proceed with a fifth distribution of approximately $900 million to its creditors. Some of these funds could return to the market, although it is impossible to precisely measure the effect.

Between central banks, U.S. statistics, and sector-specific appointments, Bitcoin will need to defend the $65,000 mark in a particularly dense environment. A cautious Fed speech could pave the way for $68,000 and then $70,000. A renewed firmness would rather place support levels of $64,000 and $62,000 back in play.

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