The Market Focuses on How the Fed Meeting Minutes Will Reveal Rate Direction

BlockBeats News, November 16th: An analysis by the Financial Times highlighted that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting will be released early Thursday morning Beijing time. At this moment, investors are increasingly uncertain about the US interest rate path. Last month, the Fed cut the benchmark interest rate to the 3.75%-4% range, but investors' hopes for another rate cut in December, hinted at by Chair Powell, were dashed. Before the October meeting, the market had fully priced in a 25 basis points rate cut in December, but Powell's statement that "further rate cuts by the year-end are not a done deal" swiftly reshaped market expectations.

Boston Fed President Collins cast doubt on the next month's rate cut this week, emphasizing that the "bar for implementing additional easing in the near term is relatively high." The lack of data will be a significant hurdle for Fed decision-making. The 43-day US government shutdown ended this week, during which key labor market and inflation data were not released, making it challenging for investors to assess the true health of the world's largest economy. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted in a client report that the data gap and delayed release of labor market indicators mean that the Fed "will face an information gap at the December meeting" (FXStreet).