SemiAnalysis: AI Data Center Power Gap Widens, Reciprocating Engines Become Main Power Supply Technology

On July 21, SemiAnalysis published an article stating that as the demand for AI computing power rapidly increases, the power supply model for data centers is changing. Reciprocating engines, which were primarily used for backup power during grid failures, are gradually being repositioned as a primary power source available around the clock. This year, reciprocating engine manufacturers have signed contracts to supply approximately 1 GW of behind-the-meter power projects, with expectations that the annual supply scale will exceed 4 GW in 2027 and 2028. After modeling the capacity of the U.S. power grid, SemiAnalysis pointed out that the existing power surplus is expected to be consumed entirely between 2027 and 2028, and the planned new utility-scale generation capacity for 2030 will still be insufficient to cover the additional load demand from data centers. Their data center model shows that about 140 GW of potential data center projects have not yet completed power supply contracts, and a significant number may adopt behind-the-meter power supply models to bypass grid expansion bottlenecks. Among various behind-the-meter power supply technologies, SemiAnalysis expects reciprocating engines to capture the largest share due to their advantages of lower costs, rapid deployment, modular expansion, and stronger financing capabilities. Equipment manufacturers such as Caterpillar, INNIO, and Cummins are expanding their production capacity to support large-scale deployments in the coming years. As AI data centers expand, on-site self-generated power is transitioning from traditional backup facilities to critical energy infrastructure, and reciprocating engines are expected to become an important solution to fill the power gap in the era of computing power.

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