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Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the Trump administration will raise the basic tariff rate to 15%
Odaily News David Mericle, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist, expects the U.S. base “reciprocal” tariff rate to rise from 10% to 15%, with copper and key minerals tariffs reaching 50% – a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and curb economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate “early observations” about the impact of import tariffs, Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Goldman Sachs lowered its core inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its forecast for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its forecast for 2027 from 2.0% to 2.4%. Mericle said tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over 2-3 years. He added that tariffs will reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, 0.4 percentage point in 2026 and 0.3 percentage point in 2027. Goldman Sachs accordingly lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%. (Jinshi)
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