Global Diesel Fuel Shortage to Last Until the End of Winter

The global supply of diesel fuel will remain extremely limited until the end of winter due to a lack of refining capacity, an export ban from Russia, and peak winter demand. Military actions in Ukraine and around Iran have negatively impacted refineries in Russia and the Middle East, leading to record levels of diesel refining margins in the U.S. and Europe and reduced supplies to Asia. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy reported that the global market is losing about 4 million barrels of oil products daily: the world is short nearly 2 million barrels from Russia and about 2 million barrels from the Middle East. The situation with crude oil is more stable; however, refinery capacities are insufficient to halt the decline in stocks. Most U.S. refineries are operating at the edge of their capabilities, and the refining margin has reached a record $108.02 per barrel. High prices and resource shortages will reduce global oil demand in 2026 by 1.5 million barrels per day compared to 2025.

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